⚡️真的,我就喜欢鲍老爷子这幅嘴硬心软的样子——
FOMC声明刚出来时,华尔街还想炒一波宽松预期,标普、纳指短线冲高。
结果鲍威尔直接开口敲打华尔街,说12月降息远非板上钉钉,别当成理所当然。
市场立马刹车——标普回落、纳指涨幅收窄,黄金、美股、比特币一起跳水。华尔街对12月降息的预期直接从98%砍到68%。
就很赤裸裸地反映出,现在的市场把希望都寄托在美联储降息上。
但鲍老爷子越是这样说,我就越觉得很诡异——
因为现在美联储对经济的判断,根本不是给市场指引注入信心了:
一边说“就业增长放缓、失业率微升但仍处于低位”,一边承认“就业下行风险上升”。
一边提“经济温和扩张”,一边又说“通胀仍处高位”。
等于直接摊牌难搞,但也不能甩摊子不搞,只好搞一点缩一下,让市场不要提前预期他们到底想怎么搞,一步一步搞着看。
所以导致嘴上很鹰派,实际行为又在降息缩表,放宽政策,非常诡异。
哎,以我对咱们男人的了解,越是这样表里不一,后面就越容易有故事!总之降息是个大方向,我先坚定不动摇。

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